With the draft only hours away, I thought it would be fun to go back and look at Speilman’s previous draft picks, since he received full rule over the draft day decisions, and grade how each one has panned out for the team thus far.
The first part in the grading process was determining how each pick should be graded. You may or may not agree with my grading scale, (more than likely will not), and I welcome you to debate it in the comments below! Please note that this scale is for players after their first year in the league. I figured it makes sense to expect more out of players as they have been in the league longer, so players who have been here one year will have expectations shifted over to the left one column and players who have been here two years will have expectations shifted over to the left two columns – that is unless they have already made it to the leftmost column, in which case I don’t think it would be fair to set expectations any higher.
Next came grading each pick. These grades are based on their performance in the most recent year only. So players like Kalil and Patterson who have regressed from a pro-bowl standing will get no extra credit for previous performance, and players like Floyd will receive no demerits for having warmed up the bench for a year.
Based on these metrics, Speilman has graded above average in his 3 years, with a total GPA of 2.29, having done the best in the most recent year and the worst in his second year. His best success is in the early rounds, and he has been hit and miss on the picks later in the draft. The biggest misses, from a draft value standpoint seem to come from the day-2 (2nd and 3rd round) selections. Granted he has only made 3 picks in those rounds in the past three years, only one of them has graded out favorably, which is pretty disappointing for such an early pick. This gives him a strong argument to continue to use those picks to move back into the first round, if a good player has slipped down to the late 20s.
Will he go 4-years in a row with multiple first round picks? The biggest miss so far has been Patterson, with Kalil not far behind, but there’s still plenty of hope that both players will turn their career around in a big way in 2015.